Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Both composes two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has got important lessons to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
