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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward script. It commonly acts as a type of apology. We regret we misjudged your team in our pre-campaign predictions.

On paper, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who oversaw the largest resurgence receives the award. However, it creates an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding excellent coaching or simply the greatest shock.

Yet this year's field is profoundly unique. The pool of candidates is exceptionally strong. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been messy, with reigning conference winners fading and longtime underperformers ascending collectively. Under an normal season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in this turbulent and entertaining year, he's up against multiple other exceptional candidates.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Given a proper system, the QB has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his special ability. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained dominance. With his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the system rather than improvising. It is an attack constructed solely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that creates wide-open receivers all over the field. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been capable to conjure big plays from nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Virtually each gamble – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has paid off. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the building with the level of pressure Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme dork but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

In a typical season, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. But this is not a typical year!

The area where his case comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for sustained success. But Johnson falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has engineered a swift resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has excelled at the intangibles stuff, which was not a guarantee after his initial public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen bet on newbies. Starting with the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an initial hot start, there was a chance that the season would go off the rails. A midseason setback caused the team stumbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting reliable ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three seed. He gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year argument has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has fallen away since that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only a single place ahead of peers.

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